Newly released internal government documents paint a stark picture of Canada’s housing crisis. Prepared for the incoming Housing Minister in May 2025, these briefing notes expose deep-seated problems that go beyond public statements. They highlight how high costs are crippling the economy and leaving many Canadians without affordable options. As the federal government prepares to launch a new agency to speed up home construction, these revelations come at a critical time.
The Documents: A Wake-Up Call from Within
The briefing materials were obtained through access-to-information requests and released this week. They were crafted for Gregor Robertson, who became Minister of Housing and Infrastructure in the Liberal cabinet shuffle earlier this year. The notes describe the housing situation as “dire,” noting that expensive homes are not just a personal hardship but a drag on overall economic growth.
One key section points to a “growing mismatch” between the types of housing being built and what Canadians actually need. Builders have focused on single-family homes and condos, while demand surges for rentals and affordable units. This imbalance worsens shortages in major cities like Toronto and Vancouver. The documents also warn that construction costs have jumped 58% since 2020, driven by inflation, labor shortages, and supply chain issues.
Immigration plays a big role too. Canada plans to welcome over 500,000 newcomers annually through 2027. But the notes flag this as unsustainable without more homes. New arrivals, often renters, face the brunt, competing with locals for limited stock. Vulnerable groups like low-income families and Indigenous communities get hit hardest.
Economic and Social Impacts: A Triple Crisis
The economic fallout is severe. High housing costs squeeze household budgets, reducing spending on other goods and services. This slows GDP growth and fuels inflation. The documents predict home prices will rise faster in 2025—up about 5% nationally—before cooling to 2-3% in 2026 and 2027. Housing starts, or new builds, will dip this year to around 240,000 units but stay above the 10-year average of 220,000.
Yet, this slowdown worries experts. A recent Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) report showed starts falling in key markets like Toronto and Vancouver in early 2025. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre seized on this, calling it a “triple crisis”: prices too high for buyers, too low for sellers, and inadequate for builders. He blamed Liberal policies, including the mortgage stress test, which requires proving you can afford higher rates.
Socially, the crisis erodes trust. Young Canadians delay starting families or moving out. Renters face evictions and bidding wars. The notes admit the government has lagged on below-market housing investments. Only 20% of new federal funding targets affordable units, far short of the 40% needed to house vulnerable populations.
In leaked excerpts circulating online, internal debates reveal more. Officials argued over easing the stress test to help first-time buyers, but others feared it could spark a bubble. High-ratio mortgages—those with small down payments—have surged 15% year-over-year, raising default risks.
Government Response: New Agency and Pledges
Ottawa’s big move is the Canada Housing Infrastructure Agency (CHIA), set to launch in October 2025. It will streamline approvals and fund 100,000 new homes by 2030. The documents back this, urging faster permitting and incentives for modular building to cut costs by 20%. Minister Robertson has promised $40 billion over five years, including tax breaks for builders.
But critics say it’s too little, too late. The notes themselves note delays in past programs like the National Housing Strategy. Only half of promised affordable units have materialized. Provinces must cooperate on zoning reforms, but tensions run high—Ontario and B.C. push back on federal mandates.
Public and Expert Reactions: Outrage and Calls for Action
The release sparked immediate backlash. On social media, users vented frustration. One Toronto renter tweeted, “Government knew all along—now what?” Another called it “a confession of failure.” Housing advocates like the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives demanded an emergency summit.
Experts weighed in too. TD Economics’ Diana Yan praised the supply focus but criticized the lack of renter analysis. “These notes ignore affordability for everyday people,” she said. Poilievre rallied supporters in Vancouver, vowing to scrap the stress test if elected. Liberal MPs defended the record, pointing to 1.2 million homes built since 2015.
Polls show 70% of Canadians view housing as the top issue, up from 50% last year. In focus groups cited in the documents, participants described feeling “trapped” by costs averaging $2,500 monthly rents in big cities.
The Bigger Picture: A National Emergency
Canada’s housing woes stem from years of underbuilding. Population grew 3% in 2024, but supply lagged at 1.5%. Foreign investment and short-term rentals like Airbnb add pressure. The documents project a 3.5 million unit shortage by 2030 if trends hold.
Climate change compounds it. Rising insurance costs from floods and fires hit renters hardest. The notes call for “climate-resilient” builds, but funding is scarce.
For U.S. neighbors watching, it’s a cautionary tale. Similar pressures in border cities like Buffalo or Seattle mirror Toronto’s struggles.
Looking Ahead: Can Canada Turn the Tide?
These documents force accountability. With an election looming in 2026, housing will dominate debates. Success hinges on CHIA’s rollout and provincial buy-in. If prices cool as predicted, relief could come by 2027. But without bold steps—like taxing vacant homes or boosting public housing—the crisis deepens.
Canadians deserve better. The grim reality in these pages underscores urgency. Policymakers must act now to build a fairer future.