Russell Henley headlines pair of matchup bets at Wells Fargo…

Lower than 24 hours seperates golf bettors from the beginning of the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship.

However, earlier than it will get underway, we have now time for one final set of performs. Yesterday it was all concerning the by-product bets, however at present we’re specializing in our favourite matchup bets.

Though I used to be unable to seek out underdogs that I had rated as favorites like final week, I settled on the next two matchup performs as offering bettors the most effective total worth.

So, with out additional delay, listed here are my two greatest matchup bets for the Wells Fargo. Each traces come courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook with odds reflective at time of writing.

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Finest Wager #1 – Russell Henley (-110) over Matt Fitzpatrick

Fitzpatrick has loved a pleasant begin to 2022, however Henley is solely a wizard on quick programs.

The previous Georgia Bulldog arrives on the Wells Fargo second in my 24-round mannequin and first in my 36-round projections. Simply within the latter mannequin, Henley ranks no worse than seventeenth in any of the six particular person classes and no worse than fourth in any of the 4 most-emphasized statistics.

Russell Henley
Russell Henley

In the meantime, Fitzpatrick arrives at TPC Potomac 73rd total in my 36-round mannequin and forty ninth total within the 24-round output. Plus, in his final look at a course underneath 7,200 yards (the RBC Heritage at Harbour City), Fitzpatrick missed the reduce.

Of additional concern with Fitzpatrick will probably be his underlying metrics on Par 70’s underneath 7,200 yards. Throughout his final 50 rounds on qualifying programs, Fitzpatrick is a hundred and twenty fifth within the area in strokes-gained: tee-to-green and 126th in strokes-gained: strategy. As for Henley, he ranks fourth and second, respectively, in these classes throughout his final 50 rounds. Even for those who take away the Par 70 qualifier from consideration, Fitzpatrick continues to be forty second and fifty fifth in these classes whereas Henley is first in each during the last 50 rounds.

Based mostly on my modeling, I’d have Henley projected nearer to -130, so I’m comfortable to again him at -110.

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Finest Wager #2 – C.T. Pan (-130) over Matthias Schwab

These two gamers are a lot nearer collectively in my fashions, however Pan brings a couple of key benefits to the desk.

Pan ranks out twenty ninth in my 24-round mannequin, a 14-spot benefit over Schwab’s Forty third-place rating within the area, however he’s been much better in two key classes. Throughout his final 24 rounds, Pan ranks fifteenth within the area in SG: strategy and 57th in good drives gained. On the flip-side, Schwab is 62nd within the area in SG: strategy and 86th in good drives gained.

When it comes to their respective SG: T2G numbers, Pan is twenty sixth within the area over his final 50 rounds whereas Schwab is forty seventh total within the area on qualifying programs. Simply over their final 12 rounds, Pan is tenth within the area whereas Schwab ranks twenty ninth in SG: T2G on programs underneath 7200 yards.

The opposite added bonus right here – Pan is a way more comfy putter on Bentgrass greens. Though he’s solely gaining solely .007 strokes/spherical on the floor, that quantity appears quite a bit higher when you think about Schwab is dropping almost 0.75 strokes/spherical on Bentgrass greens.

Lastly, Pan was T17 on the 2018 Quicken Loans Nationwide at TPC Potomac whereas Schwab is making his debut at this observe.

Though Schwab has three top-10’s in his final six occasions, he was 59th on the RBC Heritage – an analogous course to TPC Potomac – whereas Pan was forty second. For these causes, I’d play Pan as much as -140.

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