Trump Indictment: What We Know and What Comes Next

follow our live updates Donald Trump’s impeachment,

Donald J. Trump was indicted in Manhattan on Thursday, becoming the first US president, current or former, to be charged with a crime.

His indictment was handed down by a grand jury that has been hearing Mr Trump’s evidence for months. The Manhattan district attorney’s office, which brought the charges, focuses on the former president’s involvement in secret money payments to Stormy Daniels, a porn star who said she had an affair with him. Mr. Trump’s fixer at the time, Michael D. Cohen, made the payment during the final days of the 2016 presidential campaign.

District Attorney Alvin L. Bragg’s office issued a statement on Thursday evening saying Mr Trump had been indicted, and that his lawyers had been contacted to make arrangements for the surrender. One of Mr Trump’s lawyers, Susan R Nechels, said Mr Trump was expected to turn himself in and likely face indictment on Tuesday, at which point the specific charges would be dropped.

While the facts are dramatic and the allegations explosive, the case against Mr. Trump may hinge on an untested legal principle. A conviction is far from an assurance.

Here’s what we know and don’t know about the criminal case against Mr Trump:

Why was Donald Trump convicted?

The charges against Mr Trump are not yet known, although two people with knowledge of the matter said the indictment contains more than two dozen counts.

The allegations are expected to arise from payments made to Ms. Daniels, who was trying to sell her story of an affair with Mr. Trump, in October 2016, during the final weeks of the presidential campaign.

First, Ms. Daniels’ representatives contacted The National Enquirer to grant her exclusive rights to the story. David Pecker, the tabloid’s publisher and longtime ally of Mr. Trump, agreed to seek out potentially damaging stories about him during the 2016 campaign, and at one point reported Mr. Trump’s affair with another woman. Had also agreed to buy the story. Never publish it, a practice known as “catch and kill”.

But Mr. Pekar didn’t buy Ms. Daniels’ story. Instead, he and the tabloid’s top editor, Dylan Howard, helped broker a separate deal between Mr. Cohen and Ms. Daniels’ attorney.

Mr. Cohen paid $130,000, and Mr. Trump later reimbursed him from the White House.

In 2018, Mr. Cohen pleaded guilty to multiple charges, including federal campaign finance crimes involving hush money. The payment, federal prosecutors concluded, amounted to an improper donation to Mr Trump’s campaign.

In the days following Mr. Cohen’s guilty plea, the District Attorney’s Office launched its own criminal investigation into the matter. While federal prosecutors focused on Mr. Cohen, the district attorney’s investigation will focus on Mr. Trump.

So what did Mr. Trump potentially do wrong?

While pleading guilty in federal court, Mr. Cohen pointed the finger at his boss. It was Mr. Trump, he said, who instructed him to make the payments to Ms. Daniels, a contention that prosecutors later confirmed.

Prosecutors also raised questions about Mr. Trump’s monthly reimbursement checks to Mr. Cohen. They said in court papers that Mr Trump’s company “falsely accounted” for the monthly payments as legal expenses and that company records cited a retainer agreement with Mr Cohen. Although Mr. Cohen was an attorney, and became Mr. Trump’s personal attorney upon taking office, there was no such retainer agreement and the reimbursement was unrelated to any legal services performed by Mr. Cohen.

Mr Cohen has said Mr Trump knew about the fake retainer agreement, an allegation that could form the basis of a case against the former president.

In New York, falsifying business records can amount to a felony, although it is a misdemeanor. To convert the offense into a felony charge, Mr Bragg’s prosecutors would have to show that Mr Trump’s “intent to defraud” included intent to commit or conceal a second crime.

In this case, that second offense could be a violation of election law. While hush money is not inherently illegal, prosecutors could argue that the $130,000 payment effectively became an improper donation to Mr. Trump’s campaign, under the theory that it benefited his candidacy because it helped Ms. Daniel silenced.

Would it be a difficult matter to prove?

Convicting Mr. Trump or sending him to jail could be challenging. For one thing, Mr. Trump’s lawyers are certain to attack Mr. Cohen’s credibility by citing his criminal record. Prosecutors could counter that the former fixer lied years ago on behalf of her boss at the time, and is now in the best position to detail Mr Trump’s conduct.

The case against Mr Trump may also hinge on an untested legal principle.

New York prosecutors have never before linked a charge of falsified business records with a violation of state election law in a case involving a presidential election, or any federal campaign, according to legal experts. Because this is uncharted territory, it is possible that a judge could throw it out or reduce the felony charge to a misdemeanor.

Even if the charge is allowed to stand, it is a low-level felony. If Mr Trump is eventually convicted, he faces a maximum sentence of four years, although there will not be mandatory jail time.

What was Mr. Trump’s reaction to the indictment?

Mr Trump responded in a statement calling the Manhattan grand jury vote “the highest level of political harassment and election interference in history”.

Mr. Trump’s statement prompted the Manhattan District Attorney, Alvin L. made an extraordinary and blistering effort to dissuade Bragg from impeaching him.

Nevertheless, the statement was notable for its aggressive tone against prosecutors, and was a sign of what more might come.

“Democrats lied, cheated and stole in their obsession to ‘get Trump,’ but now they have done the unthinkable,” he wrote. “The sign of a completely innocent person.”

Mr Trump framed the investigation that resulted in the indictment as the latest in a long line of criminal inquiries he faces, none of which have led to charges.

what happens next?

Mr. Trump will be fingerprinted and photographed, and walked through the other routine steps of the felony conviction process in New York.

While handcuffing is standard for defendants arrested on felony charges, it is unclear whether an exception will be made for the former president. Most defendants are gagged behind their backs, but some white-collar defendants considered less of a threat have their hands secured in front of them.

Mr Trump will almost certainly be accompanied every step of the way – from being detained by armed agents of the US Secret Service to his appearance before a judge at the grand Criminal Courts building in Lower Manhattan. They need the law to protect her at all times.

Security at the courthouse is provided by state court officials with whom the Secret Service has worked in the past. But the federal agency’s chief spokesman, Anthony J. Guglielmi said he could not comment on measures to be taken for Mr Trump.

Lawyers for Mr Trump, who is running for a third term in office, said late Thursday that he would surrender, and they are likely to be arraigned on Tuesday.

After being indicted, he is almost certain to be released on his own recognizance, as the indictment will only include non-violent felony charges; Under New York law, prosecutors cannot request that a defendant be held on bail in such cases.