Ukraine’s Corn Could Benefit from U.S. Tariffs, Analyst Says

Kyiv, April 3, 2025 – Ukrainian corn, a linchpin of the country’s agricultural might, stands poised to gain from the United States’ sweeping new tariffs, according to ASAP Agri analysts in a statement released Thursday. As President Donald Trump’s trade policies—imposing a 10% baseline tariff on most imports and steeper duties on dozens of nations, including China—ripple through global markets, Ukraine’s competitive pricing and robust export infrastructure could fill gaps left by pricier U.S. corn, particularly if retaliatory sanctions hit American growers.

A Window of Opportunity

The U.S. tariffs, rolled out Tuesday, aim to address trade imbalances but risk prompting countermeasures that could shrink demand for American agricultural exports. “If key importers do end up imposing tariffs on U.S. corn, it will open a huge window of opportunity for alternative suppliers,” ASAP Agri noted. Ukraine, a global corn powerhouse, exported nearly 30 million metric tons in the 2023/24 season and is projected to ship 22 million tons in 2024/25, per the UCAB business association. With production at 26 million tons in 2024—down from 32 million in 2023 due to war-related disruptions—farmers are eyeing an acreage boost this year, lured by lucrative export prices.

“Ukrainian corn is in a strong position here: competitive pricing, stable logistics, and close ties with the European Union and Asian markets,” the analysts added. Unlike the U.S., where corn exports to China could drop 84.3% (2.2 million tons annually) under a 60% retaliatory tariff scenario per a WAEES study, Ukraine faces no such barriers, having pivoted from pre-2022 U.S. reliance in Europe to dominate EU imports post-Russia’s invasion.

Global Trade Shifts

The U.S., the world’s top corn producer, shipped 51 million tons abroad in 2023/24, with Mexico as its largest buyer. But Trump’s 25% tariff on Mexican imports—and Mexico’s hinted retaliation—could redirect demand to Brazil, Argentina, or Ukraine. Posts on X buzz with speculation: “Ukraine’s corn could surge if Mexico turns away from U.S. supply,” one user wrote. ASAP Agri agrees, noting Ukraine’s proximity to Europe and growing Asian foothold give it an edge over South American rivals, despite Brazil’s potential to gain 8.9 million tons in combined soybean and corn exports if China escalates.

Corn prices, already up since September 2024 due to tighter U.S. supply, could see further volatility. Chicago futures dipped Wednesday as EU tariffs loomed, but Ukraine’s export outlook remains bullish. “Farmers are likely to increase area sown for corn this year,” UCAB predicts, a move that could push output back toward 30 million tons.

A Double-Edged Sword

Ukraine’s gain isn’t without risks. The war with Russia, now in its third year, strains logistics—though Black Sea ports like Odesa have stabilized since 2023’s grain corridor deal. Trump’s push to end the conflict, including threats of 25-50% tariffs on Russian oil buyers if Moscow stalls peace talks, adds uncertainty. Yet, analysts see resilience: “Ukraine’s adapted to war-time export challenges better than expected,” ASAP Agri said, citing rail and Danube River routes as buffers.

For now, as U.S. tariffs—exempting Canadian energy but hitting steel, aluminum, and autos—provoke global pushback, Ukraine’s corn sector eyes a rare upside. With the EU planning countermeasures and China slapping levies on $21 billion in U.S. farm goods, the stage is set for Kyiv to seize market share—if it can navigate the chaos of a fracturing trade landscape.