President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (H.R. 1), a sweeping tax and spending package narrowly passed by the House on May 22, 2025, faces significant hurdles in the Senate, where Republicans hold a slim 53-47 majority. The bill, which extends Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, boosts border and defense spending, and cuts safety net programs like Medicaid and SNAP, is under pressure from GOP senators demanding revisions. Below are five possible changes that could delay or derail the bill’s passage by Trump’s ambitious July 4, 2025, deadline.
- Scaling Back the SALT Deduction Cap
The House bill raises the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 for married couples with incomes up to $500,000, a concession to blue-state Republicans like those from New York and New Jersey. However, Senate Republicans, led by Majority Leader John Thune, see this as a costly provision benefiting high-tax states with no GOP Senate representation. Senators like Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Kevin Cramer (R-ND) advocate slashing the cap to $20,000 or eliminating it entirely, arguing it inflates the bill’s $3.8 trillion deficit impact, per the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). House Speaker Mike Johnson warned that altering SALT could jeopardize House approval of a revised bill, as centrists like Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) insist, “No SALT, no deal.” This tension could stall negotiations, requiring a delicate balance to secure votes in both chambers. - Removing or Modifying the Debt Ceiling Increase
The bill includes a $4 trillion debt ceiling hike to avoid a U.S. default by August 2025, a move bundled to bypass Democratic negotiations via reconciliation. Fiscal hawks like Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) vehemently oppose this, arguing it balloons the national debt, with the CBO estimating a $2.4 trillion deficit increase over a decade. Paul proposes a separate vote on a $500 billion short-term increase, tying further hikes to verified spending cuts, warning, “The GOP will own the debt if we vote for this.” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) supports splitting the bill, amplifying deficit concerns. With at least four GOP senators skeptical, per Paul’s CBS News interview, this could force a rewrite, risking the July 4 timeline. - Softening Medicaid and SNAP Cuts
The House bill slashes Medicaid by $698 billion and SNAP by $267 billion over 10 years, introducing work requirements and state cost-sharing (5% for SNAP benefits starting 2028). Senators like Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Jim Justice (R-WV) oppose cuts to provider taxes, which fund Medicaid, fearing rural hospital closures. Hawley also objects to a “sick tax” on low-income patients. Sen. John Boozman (R-AR) proposes eliminating SNAP cost-sharing and raising the work requirement age threshold from 7 to 10 for families, reducing savings by $20 billion compared to the House version. Moderate Republicans like Susan Collins (R-ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) are wary of Medicaid cuts impacting 11 million Americans, per the CBO. These changes could dilute the bill’s fiscal reforms, alienating conservative House members. - Revising Clean Energy Tax Credit Repeals
The House bill phases out clean energy tax credits and electric vehicle subsidies from Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, a move cheered by fossil fuel advocates but contested by some Senate Republicans. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) urges caution to avoid “stranded costs” for businesses reliant on these credits, advocating a slower phaseout. Conversely, Sen. Ron Johnson pushes for immediate elimination, creating intraparty friction. Elon Musk, a former Trump advisor, has amplified opposition on X, decrying the bill’s “pork” while paradoxically supporting EV credit cuts, complicating GOP unity. Revising these provisions could delay the bill as senators balance energy policy and economic impacts. - Removing Anti-Democratic Provisions
Buried in the bill are two controversial provisions flagged by the Campaign Legal Center: Section 70302 restricts federal courts’ ability to enforce contempt citations against government officials violating judicial orders, and Section 43201(c) imposes a 10-year ban on state and local AI regulations, including election-related rules. These are seen as shielding Trump from judicial accountability and risking voter misinformation, respectively. Senate moderates like Collins and Murkowski, alongside fiscal hawks like Paul, may demand their removal to align with reconciliation rules or public pressure, as the Senate Commerce Committee already proposed modifying the AI ban. Stripping these could trigger a Byrd Rule “scrub,” delaying the bill as the Senate parliamentarian reviews compliance.
Outlook
With only three GOP defections affordable in the Senate, these changes—driven by deficit concerns, regional priorities, and ethical objections—threaten to unravel Trump’s agenda. If the Senate alters the bill, it must return to the House, where slim margins (220-213 GOP majority) and holdouts like Reps. Thomas Massie and Warren Davidson, who voted against it, could block reapproval. X posts reflect skepticism, with users like @libertynation noting the bill’s “slipping” chances and @RealLindellTV suggesting deeper cuts may emerge. Trump’s July 4 deadline appears increasingly unrealistic, with Senate negotiations likely extending into summer, risking a government funding crisis by September 2025.
Note: This analysis critically examines the bill’s provisions and Senate dynamics, using verified sources and treating X posts as inconclusive sentiment indicators per guidelines.
