CMHC Eyes Rebound: Canadian Housing Starts Forecast to Hold Strong Above Historical Norms in 2026
Canada’s construction crews are firing up again, with September’s housing starts leaping 14% to an annual pace of 261,282 units— a welcome jolt after months of malaise. As Canadian housing starts 2026 forecast trends brighten amid easing rates, CMHC warns of a nuanced path ahead: modest dips in 2025 giving way to steady strength that outpaces long-term averages.
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) dropped its latest pulse-check on October 16, revealing a six-month moving average of starts climbing 4.1% to 243,200 units seasonally adjusted. This uptick, fueled by a 20% surge in multi-unit projects like apartments, signals builders betting big on rental demand in hotspots from Toronto to Vancouver. Single-detached homes, the darlings of family buyers, edged up too, though at a more tempered 2% clip—hinting at cautious optimism as mortgage rates dip below 5%.
Zoom out, and the picture gets layered. CMHC’s February Housing Market Outlook, updated with summer data, pegs national starts at 240,500 units for 2025—a slight pullback from 2024’s 245,000 frenzy, pinned on a condo apartment slowdown from soft presales and investor jitters. But here’s the silver lining: 2026 clocks in at 238,600 units, dipping just marginally yet towering over the 10-year pre-pandemic average of around 200,000. By 2027, expect 232,900, still robust amid rental booms and row-house revivals in affordable pockets like Calgary and Winnipeg.
Why the resilience? Lower borrowing costs are unlocking pent-up demand, especially for ground-oriented builds—think semi-detached and rows that blend space with sensibility. Rental apartments, propped by federal incentives like the Apartment Construction Loan Program, should keep shovels turning through 2026, offsetting condo woes. Regional bright spots abound: Prairies markets like Edmonton forecast 20,000 starts in 2026, up from 19,500 in 2025, thanks to interprovincial migrants chasing value. In Ontario’s Golden Horseshoe, Toronto’s total could climb to 36,100 from 34,000, with suburbs leading the charge on townhomes.
Economists are nodding approval. “This isn’t a boom, but it’s no bust either—2026’s pace reflects a market maturing beyond speculation,” says CMHC Deputy Chief Economist Aled ab Iorwerth, who credits immigration stabilization and trade thaw assumptions for the steady line. On the flip side, TD Bank’s Diana Watt cautions in a fresh note: “Sticky shelter inflation could cap gains if rates linger higher than hoped.” Public chatter echoes the mix: X users in real estate circles buzz with relief—”Finally, starts trending up without the bubble fear,” one Calgary developer tweeted—while Vancouver renters vent frustration over persistent undersupply.
For U.S. readers with skin in the northern game, this matters big. Economically, Canada’s build-up juices lumber demand from Maine mills to Oregon forests, potentially lifting U.S. wholesale prices 5-7% and padding jobs in the $70B sector. Cross-border snowbirds and remote workers eyeing GTA condos could snag deals as supply eases, but a stronger loonie from growth might hike vacation costs. Lifestyle perks? More Canadian inventory means less pressure on Buffalo or Detroit housing from fleeing Torontonians, stabilizing rents south of the border. Politically, it spotlights shared headaches—think Biden-era (or Trump 2.0) tariff talks rippling into binational supply chains. Tech twist: Proptech firms like Zillow’s Canadian arm ramp AI tools for cross-border listings, while sports fans note NHL arenas in expanding ‘burbs drawing U.S. talent scouts.
User intent cuts to the chase: Home hunters and investors want timelines—will 2026’s uptick mean more choices? Savvy plays include eyeing Prairies for value flips or locking fixed rates now. Coverage here arms you with the map, minus the hype, to navigate from afar.
Peering ahead, CMHC’s Canadian housing starts 2026 forecast underscores a pivot from caution to confidence, with multi-family muscle and rate relief steering the ship. If immigration rebounds and tariffs stay tame, that 238k mark could nudge higher— a lifeline for a nation chasing 3.5 million new homes by 2030. For now, September’s spark and 2026’s solidity offer builders, buyers, and border-watchers alike a plot twist worth toasting.
By Sam Michael
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