The U.S. dollar is set for a weekly decline due to growing expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve policy, driven by weaker-than-expected economic data. The July jobs report, which showed only 73,000 new jobs added against an expected 110,000, along with significant downward revisions to prior months, has fueled speculation of interest rate cuts starting in September 2025. Traders now estimate an 89-91% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting, with 58 basis points of cuts priced in by year-end. Additionally, President Trump’s nomination of Stephen Miran to a vacant Fed seat and the ongoing search for a new Fed chair have raised concerns about potential political influence, further pressuring the dollar. The dollar index (DXY) rose slightly on Friday to 98.19, up 0.21-0.22%, but is down about 0.5% for the week. The euro and yen gained modestly, with EUR/USD at $1.1655 (-0.09%) and USD/JPY at 147.73 (+0.43%).
By Satish Mehra
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