Ferrexpo Shares Surge Amid Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Talks
May 12, 2025 – Shares of Ferrexpo PLC, a London-listed iron ore pellet producer with major operations in Ukraine, soared 11.9% on Monday, topping the FTSE 250 risers, as renewed optimism surrounding Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks fueled investor confidence. The surge follows reports of a potential meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkey on May 15, brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump, aimed at ending the conflict now in its fourth year.
Ferrexpo, which operates the Poltava mine 200 miles southwest of Kyiv, has faced significant challenges since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The company’s share price, which peaked at 455p before the war, plummeted to 72p recently, reflecting operational disruptions, including the closure of the Pivdennyi port and logistical constraints. A ceasefire could restore access to Black Sea ports like Odesa, enabling Ferrexpo to resume full-scale exports, particularly to Asia, where demand for its high-grade iron ore pellets remains strong.
Market sentiment was buoyed by Zelensky’s statement that Ukraine is “ready to meet” Russia for talks following a “full, lasting ceasefire” starting May 12. Trump’s push for a 30-day truce, supported by European leaders, has raised hopes of de-escalation, despite Putin’s reluctance to commit beyond a temporary halt in attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities. Investors see a potential peace deal as a catalyst for Ferrexpo, with some analysts suggesting a ceasefire could drive shares toward 250p or higher.
However, risks persist. Ferrexpo recently reported a 26% year-on-year decline in Q1 2025 pellet production due to Ukraine’s suspension of VAT refunds, though total output rose 3% to 2.13 million tonnes, driven by a 223% surge in concentrate production. The company also faces legal challenges, including Ukraine’s move to nationalize its Poltava mine, linked to investigations into majority shareholder Kostyantyn Zhevago. A $3.8 billion civil claim against its subsidiary for alleged environmental damage further clouds the outlook.
“While ceasefire talks are a positive signal, Ferrexpo’s recovery hinges on stable operations and resolution of legal disputes,” said Peter Mallin-Jones, an analyst at Peel Hunt. The company’s healthy net cash position of $109 million as of December 2023 provides some resilience, but investors remain cautious.
As markets await the outcome of the Turkey talks, Ferrexpo’s shares reflect both the promise of peace and the precariousness of its Ukrainian operations. A successful ceasefire could unlock significant upside, but any setback in negotiations or escalation in legal woes could reverse gains.
For more on Ferrexpo’s operations, visit www.ferrexpo.com.
This article captures the surge in Ferrexpo’s share price, ties it to ceasefire talks, and balances optimism with ongoing risks, using credible sources for context and data.
