How Much Does It Cost? We Break It Down
April 7, 2025 — As the Trump administration ramps up its immigration enforcement agenda, promising the “largest deportation operation in American history,” questions swirl about the mechanics and price tag of removing individuals from the United States. Deportation—a process steeped in legal, logistical, and human complexities—has become a focal point of national debate. Here’s a breakdown of how it works and what it costs, drawing from expert insights and government data as of early 2025.
How Deportation Works: The Five-Step Process
The U.S. deportation process, formally known as “removal,” unfolds in distinct stages, primarily handled by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) under the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). While each case varies, the general framework follows five key steps:
- Identification as Deportable: A person becomes eligible for deportation if they lack legal status—entering illegally, overstaying a visa, or violating green card terms—or commit certain crimes. Trump’s policies have broadened this net, targeting not just undocumented immigrants but also legal residents who’ve lost protections, like Haitians and Venezuelans whose Temporary Protected Status (TPS) was terminated in January 2025. No criminal conviction is required; simply being out of status can suffice.
- Arrest: ICE locates individuals through local law enforcement partnerships—where fingerprints flag immigration violations—or “at-large” operations in communities and workplaces. Since Trump’s inauguration, ICE has averaged 600-1,100 arrests daily, up from 282 under Biden in September 2024, per DHS statements. Expedited removal, skipping court for those in the U.S. under two years, has also surged, though legal challenges loom.
- Immigration Court: Most detainees face a hearing before an immigration judge within the Justice Department’s Executive Office for Immigration Review. With over 4 million cases pending as of late 2024, wait times can stretch years. Judges issue removal orders if no legal basis to stay—like asylum—is proven. Exceptions include wartime laws like the Alien Enemies Act, invoked in March 2025 to target alleged Venezuelan gang members without due process, a move now under federal scrutiny.
- Final Removal Order: Once ordered, ICE executes the deportation unless an appeal or voluntary departure intervenes. Appeals can delay proceedings, but voluntary exits—where individuals leave at their own expense—are rare under current enforcement pressure.
- Removal: ICE typically flies deportees out via chartered “ICE Air” flights, costing an average of $1,978 per person in 2016, though experts say 2025 costs are higher due to global migration patterns requiring longer hauls to places like Guatemala or India. Ground transport to Mexico or Canada supplements air operations for border cases.
The Costs: Breaking Down the Billions
Deportation isn’t cheap, and estimates vary wildly depending on scale. Here’s how the numbers stack up in 2025:
- Per-Person Cost: In 2016, ICE pegged the average cost of apprehending, detaining, processing, and removing one person at $10,070—a figure experts like John Sandweg, former acting ICE director, say has risen with inflation and complexity. Adjusting for 2025, posts on X and analyst guesses hover around $11,000-$13,000 per deportation, covering arrest ($300-$350/day in detention), legal proceedings, and transport.
- Mass Deportation Scenarios: The American Immigration Council’s October 2024 report offers stark projections. A one-time operation to deport all 13.3 million immigrants without legal status—Trump’s stated goal—would cost at least $315 billion. A more gradual plan, removing 1 million annually (as Vice President JD Vance has floated), would run $88 billion yearly, totaling $967.9 billion over a decade if 20% self-deport. This assumes a 24-fold expansion of ICE’s 41,500 detention beds, new facilities, and thousands more agents.
- Economic Ripple Effects: Beyond direct costs, deporting 8.3 million undocumented workers (5% of the U.S. workforce) could shrink GDP by 4.2%-6.8%—worse than the Great Recession—per the Council. Industries like construction (1.5 million workers) and agriculture (225,000) would hemorrhage labor, spiking food and housing prices. Undocumented immigrants paid $96.7 billion in taxes in 2022; their removal would gut that revenue.
The Logistics: A Mammoth Undertaking
Executing Trump’s vision requires more than money—it demands a logistical overhaul. ICE’s current 6,000-strong workforce would need to balloon five to six times, Sandweg told CNN, with Congress approving billions in extra funding—a tough sell given recent gridlock. Detention space, already strained, would rely on “soft-sided” camps or state jails at $300-$350 per night. Trump’s pledge to federalize the National Guard and invoke the Insurrection Act to bypass posse comitatus laws barring military domestic enforcement adds further complexity—and legal risk.
Countries like China or Venezuela, hit with Trump’s 34% tariffs, may refuse to accept deportees, forcing costly negotiations or detentions. “It’s a fantasy to think this happens fast,” Sandweg said, noting a single-term buildup could take four years.
The Debate: Hope vs. Havoc
For the Menendez brothers and others spotlighted this week, deportation delays signal hope. For Trump, it’s a Day One priority to “restore the rule of law,” as campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told ABC News. Critics, from economists to immigrant advocates, warn of economic collapse and family devastation. As markets slide under tariff fears, the cost—human and financial—of this deportation push remains a volatile question mark. One thing’s clear: the price tag, like the process, is anything but simple.
