How Hawthorn Could Have Upset Geelong: Hawks’ Path to Glory in the 2025 AFL Preliminary Final
The 2025 AFL preliminary final pitted two of the league’s fiercest rivals—Hawthorn and Geelong—in a blockbuster at the MCG on September 19, with a Grand Final berth on the line. The Cats, laden with finals pedigree and fresh off dismantling reigning premiers Brisbane, entered as heavy favorites. Yet Hawthorn, riding a wave of road-warrior momentum from back-to-back interstate knockout wins, had the blueprint for an upset: a high-octane, pressure-fueled game plan leveraging youth, speed, and defensive grit. While Geelong ultimately prevailed 17.13 (115) to 13.7 (85) in a tense, see-sawing affair, here’s how the Hawks could have flipped the script—drawing on pre-match strategies, key matchups, and historical edges in this storied rivalry.
Hawthorn Geelong prelim final 2025, AFL upset strategies Hawks, Geelong vs Hawthorn rivalry, AFL finals preview 2025, and Patrick Dangerfield vs Jai Newcombe—these buzzwords captured the electric buildup, as fans dissected the Hawks’ underdog bid in a match that evoked the brutal 2008-2016 era of “Hawks vs Cats” classics.
The Rivalry Rekindled: A Decade in the Making
This clash marked the first finals meeting between Hawthorn and Geelong since the 2016 qualifying final—a narrow Cats win that kicked off their resurgence. Over the past decade, the Hawks have endured a rebuild under coach Sam Mitchell, transforming from three-peat kings (2013-15) to a youthful contender. Geelong, meanwhile, boasts 14 preliminary finals in 19 seasons, but a dismal 2-7 record in them highlights vulnerability under pressure.
Hawthorn’s edge? Momentum. The Hawks stormed into September with gritty elimination wins over Port Adelaide and Adelaide on the road, showcasing resilience absent in Geelong’s 27-day layoff post-qualifying final. To upset the Cats, Hawthorn needed to weaponize that fire—starting fast to exploit Geelong’s potential rust and turning the MCG into a cauldron of chaos.
Key Strategy 1: Blitz the Midfield—Newcombe vs. Dangerfield Showdown
At the heart of any Hawks upset lay in dominating stoppages, where Geelong’s engine—led by Patrick Dangerfield (32 disposals, 8 clearances, 3 goals in the actual game)—could be neutralized. Jai Newcombe, Hawthorn’s mid-season recruit turned finals hero, averaged 28 disposals in September and was pivotal in road triumphs. To win, the Hawks had to swarm clearances early, using Newcombe and captain James Worpel to tag Dangerfield and Bailey Smith (career-high 31.2 disposals), forcing turnovers in Geelong’s half.
- Tactic: Pressure and numbers. Hawthorn ranked top-three for tackles in finals, per pre-match stats. Flooding the midfield with extra bodies—like Conor Nash and Ned Reeves—could disrupt Geelong’s handball chains, which generated 21 inside-50 marks against Brisbane. If Newcombe limited Dangerfield to under 25 touches (he hit 32), Hawthorn’s transition game opens up, feeding forwards on the spread.
- Why it works: Geelong thrives on midfield dominance but faltered in slow starts this finals series. A 20-possession edge in the first quarter could have built a 20+ point lead, echoing Hawthorn’s three one-point regular-season squeakers over the Cats in 2025.
Key Strategy 2: Lock Down the Cats’ Forward Marks—Exploit Defensive Intercepts
Geelong’s weapon? Aerial supremacy inside 50, averaging 16.2 marks per game—the league’s best. Jeremy Cameron (733 career goals) and Tyson Stengle feasted on contested grabs against Brisbane. Hawthorn’s path: Starve them by cranking up intercept pressure from half-back.
- Tactic: Half-back heroism. Without injured Will Day, Hawthorn leaned on Josh Weddle and James Sicily to orchestrate intercepts (Hawks ranked mid-table but elite in finals). Convert those into scores—where they lagged league average—to punish Geelong’s aggressive pressing. Target short turnovers, Geelong’s Achilles’ heel when rushed.
- Matchup magic: Sam Frost shadows Cameron, denying space for those 21 forward marks from the qual final. If Hawthorn scores 1.5 points per intercept (up from their 12th-ranked defensive half rate), they flip Geelong’s strength into a weakness.
In the game, Hawthorn grabbed early leads with three quick goals, but couldn’t sustain the counter—scoring just 13 total. A sharper finish could have seen them post 100+.
Key Strategy 3: Unleash the Forward Firepower—Gunston’s Veteran Spark
Veteran Jack Gunston, sole survivor from Hawthorn’s 2015 three-peat, entered in career-best form (top-10 for goals in September). Paired with Mitch Lewis and Nick Watson’s tricks, the Hawks’ attack needed to outpace Geelong’s backline, led by Tom Stewart (who subbed out injured in the real match).
- Tactic: Speed and volume. Hawthorn’s youth (average age 25.4) brings pace—use it for quick entries, avoiding Geelong’s intercept magnets like Jack Henry. Aim for 60+ inside-50s, converting at 12-15 goals via Gunston’s nous and Lewis’s contested marking.
- Why it clicks: Geelong conceded 85 points to Hawthorn in Round 6; replicate that volume, and the Cats’ prelim hoodoo (just two wins in eight) bites. Gunston’s 20th final appearance adds steel—his three goals in the loss showed glimpses.
Expert Takes: Momentum vs. Experience in the Hawks’ Corner
Analysts were split pre-bounce. ABC’s preview urged Hawthorn to “hold defensively and cut through with speed,” warning Geelong’s depth (O’Connor/Mullin on Newcombe) as a trap. Guardian’s Martin Pegan highlighted Hawthorn’s road grit: “Momentum from interstate wins could unsettle rusty Cats.” Mitchell himself preached “one week at a time,” eyeing trade tweaks if they fell short.
Fan buzz on X (pre-match) echoed hope: Threads hyped “Gunston masterclass” and “Newcombe tags Danger,” with #HawksToGF trending amid rivalry nostalgia. Critics noted Hawthorn’s intercept woes as fatal against Geelong’s turnover feasts.
Why an Upset Would Reshape AFL for Fans Down Under
For Aussie footy faithful—and U.S. expats tuning via ESPN—this matchup pulsed with stakes. An Hawthorn win vaults their rebuild into legend, boosting youth turnout (Hawks’ Gen Z base up 30% in 2025) and pressuring Geelong’s “prelim curse.” Economically, it juices MCG revenue ($10M+ for finals), while culturally, it revives the “Kennett Curse” lore from 2009’s epic.
Lifestyle lift? Rivalry fuels Easter Monday traditions, drawing 80,000+ annually. Politically neutral but community-binding, it spotlights Melbourne’s multicultural heart. Tech twist: AR apps tracked live stats, enhancing remote viewing. Sports ripple: A Hawks GF run inspires AFL’s global push, eyeing U.S. academies.
Momentum Stalled: Lessons from the Loss and Hawks’ Horizon
Geelong’s masterclass—fueled by Dangerfield’s “captain’s game” and Holmes’ redemption—exposed Hawthorn’s transition gaps, but the Hawks’ gallant fight (trailing by just 12 at halftime) proves the blueprint’s viability. Mitchell eyes a hard trade period to fortify the list.
Hawthorn Geelong prelim final 2025, AFL upset strategies Hawks, Geelong vs Hawthorn rivalry, AFL finals preview 2025, and Patrick Dangerfield vs Jai Newcombe defined a near-miss classic. Though the Cats advance to face Collingwood or Brisbane, Hawthorn’s near-upset cements their resurgence—poised for 2026 contention. In footy’s cruel theater, the Hawks didn’t just compete; they roared, reminding us why this rivalry endures.