(Note: While technically nonpartisan, the race has taken on clear partisan tones, with Higgins backed by Democratic leaders and González endorsed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and even President Donald Trump.
)Polls closed at 7 p.m. ET, and as of this writing (early evening results pending certification), Higgins holds a commanding lead based on early voting and absentee ballots, where Democrats have surged. Prediction markets like Polymarket give her a 94% chance of victory as of midday today.
If she wins, she’d become Miami’s first Democratic mayor in 29 years, its first female mayor, and its first non-Hispanic mayor since the 1990s.
The Path to the Runoff: A Crowded Field and Democratic MomentumThe November 4 general election featured 13 candidates vying to replace Suarez, who won reelection in 2021 with 78.6% of the vote.
No one cleared 50%, triggering the first mayoral runoff since 2001.
Turnout was modest at ~21.6% (37,000+ ballots from 174,000 registered voters), but Democratic candidates dominated.
|
Candidate
|
Party Affiliation
|
First-Round Vote Share
|
Key Notes
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
Eileen Higgins
|
Democrat
|
36%
|
County commissioner; focuses on affordable housing, transit, and climate resilience. Backed by Florida Dems Chair Nikki Fried.
|
|
Emilio T. González
|
Republican
|
19%
|
Ex-city manager (2018–2020); pitches tax cuts for homesteaders and “real reform.” DeSantis/Trump-endorsed; labeled “MAGA” by local Dems.
|
|
Ken Russell
|
Democrat
|
18%
|
Former commissioner; strong in progressive areas. Conceded but urged support for Higgins.
|
|
Joe Carollo
|
Republican
|
11%
|
Incumbent commissioner with a controversial history (e.g., 1990s riots, recent scandals).
|
|
Others (9 candidates)
|
Mixed
|
<10% each
|
Included family scions like Xavier Suarez (former mayor, 5%); voters rejected “dynasties.”
nytimes.com
|
Combined, Democratic-leaning candidates took over 50% in Round 1— a sign of shifting winds in a city Trump won by just 1 point in 2024 (flipping Miami-Dade County red for the first time since 1988).
Early voting in the runoff has seen Democrats outpace Republicans by 7.4% so far, though GOP turnout efforts could narrow it on Election Day.
Why Now? Broader Political Tides and Local StakesMiami’s GOP mayoral holdout bucks Florida’s blue-leaning urban trend, but 2025’s national backlash against Trump’s early-term policies—tariffs inflating costs, immigration crackdowns disrupting tourism/labor, and federal cuts to urban programs—has energized Democrats.
Fried called the race a “shock wave” test for Dems in red-leaning Florida.
Endorsements from labor (e.g., CIR/SEIU for Higgins) and warnings from González allies about “URGENT” threats underscore the stakes.
Key issues:
- Housing and Affordability: Higgins pushes rent control and developer accountability; González favors tax relief but critics say it ignores root causes.
- Development vs. Equity: Miami’s boom (tech influx under Suarez) has spiked costs; Higgins eyes inclusive growth, while González aligns with DeSantis’ deregulation.
- National Overlay: Trump’s Miami library plans and González’s “Keep Miami Red” push (echoed on X) frame it as a Trump litmus test.
X buzz reflects the divide: Dems celebrate “glorious” momentum (@SpencerHakimian), while Republicans rally with Trump posts and turnout pleas (@TrumpWarRoom,@realDonaldTrump).
Analysts note GOP consolidation could flip it, but Higgins’ lead suggests a blue breakthrough.
Bottom Line: Yes, It’s Poised to Change—Barring a Late GOP SurgeWith Higgins’ double-digit edge in early data and Dem enthusiasm, Miami’s Democratic drought is likely ending tonight.
This could signal broader suburban pushback in red states. Check Miami-Dade Elections for live results—history awaits.