Political Bias vs. Trump? Here’s How the U.S. Jobs Report Is Really Put Together
Washington, D.C. – August 7, 2025 – Recent claims by President Donald Trump alleging political bias in the U.S. jobs report have sparked controversy, particularly following the dismissal of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on August 1, 2025. Trump’s assertion that the jobs numbers were “rigged” to undermine his administration has raised questions about the integrity of the BLS and the methodology behind the monthly Employment Situation report. Here, we break down how the jobs report is compiled and address concerns about political interference, drawing on expert insights and established processes.
The Jobs Report: A Data-Driven Process
The U.S. jobs report, officially known as The Employment Situation, is a cornerstone of economic data, influencing markets, policymakers, and businesses. Produced by the BLS, an independent agency within the Department of Labor, the report is derived from two primary surveys: the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey.
- Current Population Survey (CPS): Conducted in collaboration with the U.S. Census Bureau, the CPS surveys approximately 60,000 households monthly to gauge unemployment rates and labor force participation. Respondents are asked about their employment status during the week that includes the 12th of the month. The survey is designed to be representative of the U.S. adult population, with results weighted to account for demographic factors like age, gender, and region.
- Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey: This survey collects data from about 119,000 businesses and government agencies, covering roughly 629,000 worksites. Participation is voluntary in most states, though mandatory in New Mexico, Oregon, South Carolina, and Puerto Rico. Businesses submit payroll data, including employment, hours, and earnings, for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. BLS economists rigorously edit this data to detect errors, contacting businesses for clarification if needed.
The BLS employs over 2,000 staff, including professional economists and statisticians, to compile and analyze this data. The process is highly structured, with data collection, editing, and reporting following standardized methodologies to ensure accuracy and consistency. The final report, released on the first Friday of each month, includes initial estimates that are later revised as additional data becomes available.
Revisions: A Feature, Not a Flaw
Trump’s criticism has centered on downward revisions to job growth figures, notably a preliminary 818,000-job reduction for the year ending March 2024 and a 258,000-job cut for May and June 2025. He claimed these revisions, announced in August 2024 and July 2025, respectively, were politically motivated to harm his campaign or presidency. However, revisions are a standard part of the BLS process, reflecting the agency’s commitment to accuracy over time.
- Why Revisions Happen: Initial job estimates rely on early responses, often from larger firms, which may not fully capture economic trends. As smaller businesses—often more sensitive to economic shifts—submit data, revisions adjust the numbers. For example, the July 2025 report showed only 73,000 jobs added, with May and June revised down to 19,000 and 14,000 jobs, respectively, from earlier estimates of 125,000 and 147,000. These adjustments align with economic slowdowns linked to Trump’s tariff policies and immigration restrictions.
- Historical Context: Revisions are not unique to 2024 or 2025. A 902,000-job revision in 2009 was larger than the 2024 adjustment Trump called a “record.” The BLS’s transparency in revising data, even when politically inconvenient, demonstrates its impartiality. Economists like Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute emphasize that such revisions show the BLS operates without bias, reporting data under both Democratic and Republican administrations.
Allegations of Political Bias
Trump’s claims of a “rigged” report stem from his belief that McEntarfer, a Biden appointee, manipulated data to favor Democrats. He falsely stated that an 818,000-job revision was announced “right after the election” to boost Kamala Harris’s campaign, when it actually occurred in August 2024, over two months before Election Day. No evidence supports allegations of data manipulation. Former BLS commissioners, including William Beach (appointed by Trump) and Erica Groshen (appointed by Obama), have defended the agency’s integrity, noting that the commissioner does not directly produce or alter data. Instead, career civil servants handle data processing, and the commissioner only sees finalized figures shortly before public release.
The BLS’s autonomy is further protected by its structure. While the Labor Secretary oversees the agency, the commissioner, confirmed by the Senate (McEntarfer received an 86-8 vote in 2024, including support from then-Senator JD Vance), operates independently to shield data from political influence. Trump’s firing of McEntarfer, who was praised for her nonpartisan approach, has been widely criticized by economists and former officials as an attack on statistical independence.
Risks of Politicization
Experts warn that Trump’s actions, including firing McEntarfer and questioning the BLS’s credibility, could erode trust in economic data critical to markets and policy decisions. Michael Feroli of JPMorgan Chase likened the situation to a pilot flying with a “flawed instrument panel,” risking economic stability. Former BLS staff and economists like Arin Dube and Ernie Tedeschi have expressed alarm that appointing a politically aligned commissioner could lead to biased reporting or delayed data releases, though outright data manipulation would likely be detected due to the agency’s transparent methodology.
Broader Context: Trump’s Economic Narrative
Trump’s sensitivity to the jobs report reflects broader challenges with his economic agenda. His approval rating on economic issues has slipped to 37% in July 2025, down from 53% in 2024 exit polls, amid concerns over tariffs and inflation. The July 2025 report’s weak numbers—coupled with a 4.2% unemployment rate and federal job losses linked to his policies—contradict his claim of a “booming” economy. Posts on X from Trump’s team, such as @PressSec and @SecScottBessent, tout wage increases and tariff revenues, but these claims lack substantiation and ignore the broader economic slowdown.
Conclusion
The BLS’s jobs report is a meticulously crafted product of rigorous, transparent surveys, designed to minimize bias and ensure accuracy through revisions. Claims of political manipulation lack evidence and are refuted by experts across the political spectrum. Trump’s dismissal of McEntarfer risks undermining confidence in a critical economic institution, with potential consequences for markets and policy. As the BLS moves forward under Acting Commissioner William Wiatrowski, a career civil servant, its commitment to impartial data remains vital to informed decision-making.
For more on the BLS methodology, visit BLS.gov. For economic analysis, see AmericanEnterpriseInstitute.org.