Political Polls: Fratelli d’Italia Falling, Movimento 5 Stelle Rises in Italy
Rome, April 4, 2025 – Recent political polls in Italy signal a shift in voter sentiment, with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Fratelli d’Italia (FdI) experiencing a decline while the progressive Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S) gains ground. The latest surveys, conducted in late March by Ipsos, Termometro Politico, and Demopolis, reflect growing challenges for Meloni’s coalition amid economic pressures and international tensions, while M5S capitalizes on its opposition stance.
Fratelli d’Italia’s Slide
FdI, the linchpin of Italy’s right-wing government since the 2022 election, has seen its support erode from a high of 30% earlier this year to as low as 26.6% in Ipsos’ March 25-27 poll—a drop of 0.4 points from February. Termometro Politico’s March 26-27 survey pegs FdI at 29%, down from its January peak, while Demopolis holds steady at 30% but notes a softening trend since late 2024. The party, which won 26% in the 2022 general election and soared to 28.8% in the 2024 European Parliament vote, is facing its lowest polling since Meloni took office.
Analysts point to multiple headwinds. Trump’s U.S. tariffs, hitting Italy with a 20% duty, threaten the €103 billion fashion sector—a concern voiced by industrialist Matteo Marzotto—while domestic inflation and energy costs linger from post-Covid recovery woes. Meloni’s approval rating, tracked by Ipsos, slipped to 41% in March, the lowest since 2022, with her coalition’s cohesion under scrutiny as Lega’s Matteo Salvini flexes a pro-Trump stance.
Movimento 5 Stelle’s Resurgence
Meanwhile, M5S, led by former PM Giuseppe Conte, is climbing. Ipsos reports it at 13.8% (up 0.6 points), Termometro Politico at 12%, and Demopolis at 11%—a notable recovery from its 10.6% nadir in mid-2022 polls. After securing 15.4% in 2022 and 10% in the 2024 EU elections, M5S has rebounded by sharpening its progressive identity, joining the European Left in 2024, and opposing the EU’s ReArm Europe plan—a stance that’s resonated amid anti-war sentiment.
Conte’s focus on economic relief and skepticism toward militarization has drawn voters disillusioned with both Meloni’s right and the center-left Partito Democratico (PD), which fell to 21.5% in Ipsos’ latest (down 1.1 points). Posts on X note M5S’s gains: “Conte’s anti-rearm push is working—13.8% and rising,” one user wrote, reflecting a sentiment that the party’s clarity contrasts with PD’s internal rifts.
Coalition Dynamics and Opposition Struggles
The broader coalition—FdI, Lega (9%, up 0.9 in Ipsos), and Forza Italia (8.4%, steady)—still commands 46-47%, per polls, but cracks are showing. Lega’s uptick suggests Salvini’s Trump alignment may be peeling off FdI voters, though Forza Italia lags. The opposition remains fragmented: PD’s 21.5-23% across surveys trails FdI by 5-7 points, while smaller allies like Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (AVS) hover at 6%. Azione and Italia Viva, at 3% and 2%, fail to coalesce with PD, a lingering weakness since 2022’s electoral loss.
What’s Driving the Shift?
Meloni’s dip aligns with global trade turbulence—U.S. tariffs and China’s looming retaliation—hitting Italy’s export-driven economy. Ipsos’ Nando Pagnoncelli told Corriere della Sera that “divisions in the majority” and “international positioning difficulties” are eroding trust. M5S, unburdened by governance, has seized the moment, with its anti-establishment roots finding new life in a protest vote against both Meloni and a fractured left.
As Italy heads toward its next election, no later than December 2027, FdI’s once-unassailable lead—130 seats in 2022—is softening, while M5S’s 52-seat base eyes growth. For now, the right holds, but the rising Five Stars signal a restless electorate ready to shake up Rome’s power balance.
