Wall Street Veteran Sees Clear Path for S&P 500 to Surge Another 10% in 2025
New York, September 16, 2025 — The S&P 500 is already riding high, up 8% this year and flirting with record closes, but one Wall Street heavyweight says the sky’s the limit for another big leap. Jonathan Golub, the newly minted chief equity strategist at Seaport Research Partners, dropped a bold prediction Tuesday: The index could climb another 10% by year-end, with “low hurdles” standing in the way. In a market where some investors are sweating a potential pullback, Golub’s call is a shot of optimism—and he’s got the data to back it up.
Fundamentals Over Fear: Why Golub’s Bullish
Golub, a seasoned voice who’s navigated decades of market swings, pushed back hard against the naysayers on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” “Concerns about a rapid run-up making stocks ripe for a fall assume a market driven by sentiment and animal spirits, not fundamentals,” he said. He points to strong economic signals—like August’s retail sales jumping 0.6% (double Wall Street’s expectations) and nonfuel import prices rising at the fastest clip in over a year—as proof the market’s got legs.
The S&P 500’s current price, hovering around 5,594 as of Tuesday’s close, reflects solid corporate earnings and consumer resilience, per Golub. Check the finance card above for real-time data, showing a year-to-date climb from 5,868 in January to 6,595 today, a 12.4% gain. Golub’s 10% target would push the index to roughly 6,150, a mark he sees as achievable given easing trade tensions and steady Fed policy.
Trade Winds and Tech Power: Tailwinds for Growth
Golub’s optimism isn’t blind. He cites cooling trade fears as a major boost. After April’s tariff scare sent the S&P 500 tumbling nearly 20%, President Trump’s recent deals with Japan and the EU have calmed markets, with strategists like Oppenheimer’s John Stoltzfus raising year-end targets to 7,100. “Enough tariff hurdles have been overcome for now,” Stoltzfus noted, echoing Golub’s view that policy risks are fading.
Tech’s another driver. Despite AI stocks like Palantir and Super Micro Computer taking hits in March, their rebound—Palantir up 8.1%, Super Micro 16% in May—signals the sector’s staying power. Golub argues these names, alongside broad earnings growth of 18% in Q4 2024, keep the rally grounded. Citi’s Stuart Kaiser added that 41% of S&P 500 firms raised full-year guidance, a jump from April’s 10%, signaling corporate confidence.
Clouds on the Horizon? Not So Fast
Not everyone’s buying the hype. Veteran analyst Jim Welsh warned last week of a potential “bloody freefall” if labor markets sour, pointing to August’s dismal 22,000 jobs added and revised-down summer figures. On X, @amitisinvesting noted falling bond yields as investors brace for rate cuts, hinting at economic jitters. Yet Golub shrugs off the gloom, arguing that market momentum—historically yielding 6-10% gains after sharp corrections—tilts the odds toward bulls.
A Market at a Crossroads
Golub’s call is a wake-up for investors: The S&P 500’s path to 6,150 isn’t guaranteed, but it’s closer than skeptics think. With trade deals smoothing global risks and earnings holding firm, the hurdles do look low. Still, in a world where jobs data can spook markets overnight, the question lingers: Can fundamentals outrun fear? As one X user put it, “S&P at 6K or bust—let’s see if Golub’s got it right.” For now, it’s a bet worth pondering—your portfolio might thank you for it.