Tropical Storm Erin, which formed on August 11, 2025, in the eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands, is forecast to become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. As of August 12, 2025, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports Erin has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and is moving west at 20-23 mph, located approximately 560-820 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Forecasters expect Erin to strengthen over warm Atlantic waters, potentially reaching hurricane status (winds of 74 mph or greater) by late Wednesday, August 13, or Thursday, August 14, 2025. Models suggest it could further intensify into a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher, with winds of 111 mph or more) by the weekend, possibly Saturday, August 16, 2025, as it approaches north of Puerto Rico.
The storm’s current trajectory indicates a westward movement across the central tropical Atlantic, with a gradual turn to the west-northwest, likely keeping it north of the Caribbean islands. However, its long-term path remains uncertain, with some models suggesting a northward turn that could bring it closer to Bermuda or the U.S. East Coast, potentially causing rough surf and rip currents from the Carolinas to New England by next week. Other scenarios indicate it may stay out to sea, influenced by factors like the Bermuda High and a potential cold front. No coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect, and Erin poses no immediate threat to land.
Before forming, Erin, as Invest 97L, caused significant impact in the Cabo Verde Islands, with at least seven to eight deaths reported due to flooding and thunderstorms. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, running from June 1 to November 30, has already seen five named storms, with Erin being the fifth. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an above-average season with 13-18 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 2-5 major hurricanes, driven by warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear.