Escalating Precedents: Trump’s Venezuela Strikes Seen as Bolstering Xi’s Coercive Strategy Toward Taiwan
In a geopolitical ripple effect drawing sharp analysis, President Donald Trump’s recent military and economic actions against Venezuela—including tanker seizures, an effective embargo, and a confirmed strike on Venezuelan soil—are being viewed by experts as inadvertently strengthening Chinese President Xi Jinping’s hand in asserting claims over Taiwan. The moves, part of Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign under the Monroe Doctrine, set dangerous precedents for coercive tactics short of full-scale war, potentially emboldening Beijing’s approach to the self-ruled island.
The escalation began with U.S. forces seizing Venezuelan oil tankers in international waters in December 2025, followed by a direct strike on a mainland target on December 29—Trump’s first confirmed attack inside Venezuela. Framed as combating drug trafficking and terrorism, these actions have been criticized for blurring lines in international law, allowing interventions against sovereign nations without formal declarations of war.
Analysts argue this lowers the bar for China, which has ramped up “gray zone” operations around Taiwan. Beijing’s “Justice Mission 2025” drills in late 2025, responding to a U.S. $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan, involved restricting sea and air access—mirroring aspects of a blockade. International law expert Milena Sterio noted that if the U.S. justifies such measures against Venezuela as part of an “armed conflict,” China could adapt similar rationales for Taiwan, treating it as a domestic sovereignty issue rather than an international one.
Further parallels emerge in designations: The U.S. labeled Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua a Foreign Terrorist Organization, justifying lethal force—akin to China’s investigations into Taiwanese “separatists” like Puma Shen, potentially enabling targeted operations. Steve Tsang of the SOAS China Institute warned that Beijing, which doesn’t recognize Taiwan’s sovereignty, could frame incursions as “police actions,” further normalized by U.S. norm violations.
In the South China Sea context, Lucio Blanco Pitlo III suggested Trump’s treatment of the Caribbean as an “American lake” could encourage China to solidify control over disputed waters, leveraging stronger historical claims to Taiwan than, say, U.S. interests in Greenland.
For American readers, this dynamic heightens U.S.-China tensions amid Trump’s second term. While aimed at Maduro’s regime, the Venezuela strategy could complicate U.S. commitments to defend Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act, potentially eroding deterrence. With Xi eyeing reunification by 2049, such precedents might shift Beijing from invasion risks to intensified coercion—impacting global trade routes, semiconductor supplies, and alliances like AUKUS.
As 2026 unfolds, stakeholders monitor whether these actions accelerate a “hinge year” for power balances, with implications for freedom of navigation and regional stability.
By Mark Smith
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