As Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act ramps up next year with up to $5.5 trillion in tax cuts, Société Générale identifies 30 stocks poised to benefit across key sectors like infrastructure and finance. Discover SocGen’s analysis on fiscal boosts, market tailwinds, and picks like Costco and Caterpillar amid rising deficits and equity gains. Investors eye opportunities in this landmark legislation signed in July 2025.
President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending package, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed into law on July 4, 2025, is poised to deliver major economic stimulus starting in 2026. Analysts at Société Générale (SocGen) predict it could add significant tailwinds for U.S. equities, spotlighting 30 stocks across five core policy areas. With extensions of 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions, the bill promises trillions in relief but also wider deficits.
Unpacking the OBBBA: A $4.5 Trillion Tax Overhaul
The OBBBA builds on Trump’s first-term TCJA by making key cuts permanent and adding new incentives, totaling $4.5 trillion over a decade, per Congressional estimates. If temporary measures stick around, SocGen forecasts the figure could hit $5.5 trillion. Signed after a narrow Senate passage on July 1, 2025, and House approval, it includes boosts to standard deductions, child tax credits via “Trump accounts,” and exemptions for tips and overtime pay up to $25,000 and $12,500, respectively.
This package aims to avert TCJA expirations at year-end, potentially lifting household incomes by 2-3% annually, according to J.P. Morgan Research. However, critics note cuts to social programs like Medicaid work requirements could strain safety nets.
SocGen Identifies Five Key Policy Pillars Driving Gains
SocGen’s equity team, led by analysts in their latest note dated November 26, 2025, breaks down the OBBBA into five pivotal areas likely to spur corporate spending and consumer activity:
- Corporate Tax Relief: Lowering effective rates and expanding deductions, echoing TCJA’s 21% cap.
- Infrastructure and Energy Boosts: Funding for networks and renewables, though solar firms dipped post-passage.
- Individual Incentives: Tax breaks on wages and savings accounts for kids, fueling retail and services.
- Defense and Manufacturing: Backlogs in programs like F-35, benefiting aerospace giants.
- Financial Sector Perks: Easier capital access for private equity and leasing.
These pillars, per SocGen, could push annual fiscal deficits above 6% of GDP by 2027, yet provide “an additional tailwind for equities in 2026.”
Spotlight on SocGen’s 30-Stock Basket: Early Movers
Drawing from the bill’s themes, SocGen curated a diversified basket of 30 U.S.-listed stocks expected to capture upside. While full details are in their proprietary report, initial highlights include heavyweights in retail, industrials, and asset management. As of November 27, 2025, trading shows modest gains amid broader market stalls.
Key picks and recent performance:
- Costco Wholesale (COST): Up 1.56% to $908.26, benefiting from wage tax exemptions boosting low-income spending.
- Apollo Global Management (APO): Down 0.27% to $130.27, positioned for private equity inflows from lower capital gains taxes.
- Caterpillar (CAT): Up 1.26% to $573.73, tied to infrastructure outlays.
Other sectors represented: Aerospace (e.g., Lockheed Martin backlog at $176 billion), e-commerce (Amazon for discretionary sales), and renewables, despite green grant cancellations noted by Reuters on June 5, 2025.
Fiscal Ripple Effects: Deficits vs. Growth Trade-Off
The OBBBA’s scale has sparked debate. SocGen estimates it could elevate U.S. debt-to-GDP ratios by 10 points over five years, with annual deficits exceeding $2 trillion if growth hits 3%. Proponents, including Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Office, argue for 1-2% GDP uplift via business investments.
- Projected Tax Savings: $1,000 one-time credit per child born 2025-2028 into Trump accounts.
- Corporate Impact: GILTI deduction trimmed to 49.2%, per Proskauer Tax Talks (May 27, 2025).
- Market Mute: Post-passage, S&P 500 rose 0.5%, Treasuries dipped slightly, dollar steady (Reuters, July 1, 2025).
- Risks: Inflation from stimulus, per Algebris Investments’ CIO.
Investor Reactions and Broader Market Outlook
Wall Street’s response has been tempered but optimistic. Nasdaq analysts flagged opportunities in defense stocks like Lockheed Martin (LMT), trading at 14.5x 2027 earnings despite F-35 delays. Bloomberg noted CFOs eyeing capex hikes in 2026, with firms like AstraZeneca (AZN) and Heico (HEI) prepping for R&D incentives.
Shares in solar outfits fell 5-10% in May 2025 on green funding ax, but industrials climbed 2%. SocGen advises balanced exposure, warning of volatility from tariff assumptions.
In summary, as Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act fully activates in 2026, SocGen sees it fueling a pro-growth cycle despite deficit concerns. With $5.5 trillion potentially at stake, their 30-stock picks offer targeted bets on tax-driven recovery. Investors should monitor deficit hawks in Congress for tweaks, but early signals point to equity upside through mid-year. For deeper dives, check MarketWatch’s full analysis.
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