US Judiciary’s Recommendation to Shrink a Circuit Will Likely Be Ignored, Court Watchers Say
Washington, August 9, 2025 – The U.S. Judicial Conference, led by Chief Justice John Roberts, has recommended leaving the next vacancy on the Denver-based 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals unfilled, citing consistently low per-judge caseloads. This proposal, part of a biennial survey of judicial needs, aims to shrink the court to address efficiency concerns. However, court watchers and legal experts predict this recommendation will be ignored, as it has been in the past, due to political priorities overriding administrative suggestions.
The Judicial Conference, the judiciary’s policymaking body, has made similar recommendations since 2017, advising against filling vacancies on the 10th Circuit and certain district courts, including the Southern District of West Virginia, Eastern District of Michigan, and District of Wyoming. The rationale is based on data showing the 10th Circuit’s caseloads are among the lowest, with only 3,054 appeals filed in 2024 compared to 7,073 in the 9th Circuit. Yet, historical precedent suggests presidents rarely heed such advice. Russell Wheeler, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, noted that no president has ever followed the Conference’s vacancy recommendations, stating, “The Conference is aware these are likely to be ignored, but makes them to present itself as a careful steward of public funds.”
President Donald Trump, who appointed 234 federal judges in his first term and four more since January 2025, is expected to continue prioritizing judicial appointments to cement a conservative legacy. During his first term, Trump filled two 10th Circuit seats despite similar recommendations, as did President Joe Biden with two appointments. The White House has not commented on the latest proposal, but experts like Wheeler argue that Trump’s focus on reshaping the judiciary makes it unlikely he will leave any seat vacant.
The 10th Circuit, covering Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, and Wyoming, currently has 12 active judges. Shrinking it could streamline operations but risks reducing regional representation, a concern raised by some legal analysts. Conversely, political strategists note that filling vacancies allows administrations to influence judicial outcomes for decades, given judges’ lifetime tenure. Posts on X reflect skepticism about the recommendation’s fate, with one user noting, “Trump’s not skipping any chance to stack the courts—efficiency be damned.”
The broader context includes ongoing debates over judicial efficiency versus ideological influence. The Judicial Conference’s push for fewer judges contrasts with calls from groups like the Center for American Progress for expanding the judiciary to address case backlogs, which have grown 346% for civil cases pending over three years since 2004. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court’s recent 6-3 ruling limiting nationwide injunctions has shifted focus to circuit courts’ roles in checking executive power, making their composition even more critical.
As the 2026 judicial nomination cycle approaches, the 10th Circuit vacancy recommendation appears poised to be sidelined, with Trump likely to nominate a conservative judge if a seat opens, continuing a pattern of prioritizing political strategy over administrative restraint.