Tinubu’s Eight-Year Tenure: Niger Gov Bago Assures North of Power Rotation in 2031
Niger State Governor Mohammed Umar Bago has thrown his weight behind President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid, declaring that political power will return to Northern Nigeria only after Tinubu completes eight years in office. This firm endorsement highlights the ongoing debate over Nigeria’s informal zoning system, as early 2027 jostling intensifies.
Bago’s Bold Pledge: Loyalty from the North
Governor Bago made the remarks during a TVC interview on September 14, 2025, criticizing premature calls for a Northern candidate just two years into Tinubu’s first term. “For crying out loud, this man has just spent two years in office and you want it to come back to the north. How?” Bago questioned, urging patience until 2031.
He positioned himself as Tinubu’s unofficial Northern campaign director, vowing to mobilize support from Minna. “I have made myself the DG of Tinubu’s campaign for 2027, and no going back about that,” Bago declared. This aligns with his August 11 stakeholders’ meeting, where he assured Tinubu of Niger State’s unwavering loyalty amid his second-term push.
The Rotation Tradition: North’s Eight Years, South’s Turn
Bago invoked Nigeria’s unwritten power-sharing pact, where regions alternate eight-year cycles to foster unity. After Northern leaders like Muhammadu Buhari (2015-2023) held the presidency, the South claimed its slot with Tinubu’s 2023 victory.
“Nigeria is coexisting peacefully because we have decided to embrace a kind of rotation in governance; the North will do eight years, the South will do eight years,” Bago explained. He warned against disrupting this balance, echoing sentiments from Akwa Ibom Speaker Udeme Otong, who in May insisted the South deserves its full eight years.
Nasarawa Governor Abdullahi Sule reinforced this in April, stating the North committed to letting the South finish its term before eyeing a return.
Early Agitations and Northern Divisions
Despite the consensus, whispers of 2027 bids from Northern figures like Atiku Abubakar have surfaced, prompting Bago’s retort. House member Abdulmumin Jibrin dismissed claims of Northern disloyalty to Tinubu, calling him “not an orphan in the north” and urging the region to back his reforms.
Analysts note deepening fault lines, with youth leaders like Yerima Shettima arguing the North never speaks with one voice on such matters.
APC’s Machine Revs Up: Tinubu’s 2027 Path
The All Progressives Congress (APC) endorsed Tinubu for a second term in May 2025, citing his economic reforms like fuel subsidy removal and currency float. Bago’s support bolsters this, especially as opposition coalitions fracture.
Tinubu’s Northern ties remain strong, with initiatives like the Sokoto-Badagry highway linking regions and boosting non-oil revenue—hitting 2025 targets in August alone.
Broader Implications: Unity, Economy, and 2027 Stakes
For Nigerians, this rotation debate underscores fragile ethnic balances amid insecurity and inflation. Bago’s call promotes stability, potentially easing investor jitters—Fitch upgraded Nigeria’s rating to B in April 2025.
Politically, it pressures Northern aspirants to wait, while economically, Tinubu’s continuity could sustain infrastructure wins like the Lagos-Calabar highway. Yet, critics fear it sidelines urgent Northern issues like banditry.
In conclusion, Governor Bago’s assurance cements Tinubu’s Northern firewall, betting on rotation to deliver power Northward in 2031. As 2027 nears, this pact could unify the APC or ignite fresh rivalries—shaping Nigeria’s next chapter of progress or polarization.
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